@Article{PaivaNaRoToCaRe:2020:CaPaSu,
               author = "Paiva, Ana Carolina da Encarna{\c{c}}{\~a}o and Nascimento, 
                         Nath{\'a}lia and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Tomasella, Javier 
                         and Carriello, Felix and Rezende, Fernanda Silva",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e 
                         Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Universidade Federal 
                         Fluminense (UFF)} and {Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)}",
                title = "Urban expansion and its impact on water security: The case of the 
                         Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul River Basin, S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil",
              journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "720",
                pages = "e137509",
                month = "jun.",
             keywords = "Water supply, Urbanization, Population growth, Land use 
                         modelling.",
             abstract = "Increasing demand for water is one of the most challenging 
                         problems that human societies face today and has encouraged new 
                         studies to examine water security and water management. Seeking to 
                         discuss this important issue in the Brazilian context, we analyzed 
                         the impacts of urban expansion on water security in a basin 
                         located in the most populated region of Brazil. To quantify 
                         increased water demand, we combined urban sprawl and regional 
                         population increase projections. In this context, our study 
                         contributes to discussions on water security by addressing the 
                         importance of integration between water and urban planning. 
                         Simulations indicate good performance in reproducing actual water 
                         system conditions. The finding demonstrates that urban expansion 
                         in the region is mainly driven by road proximity. Urban occupation 
                         is projected to increase in 170% by 2050, increasing water demands 
                         for domestic use in 38%. Results indicate the feasibility of 
                         including landscape and socioeconomic constrains in order to 
                         obtain potential domestic water demand scenarios by using land use 
                         and land cover change modelling to assess urban expansion and 
                         population growth. For the study region, our findings suggest that 
                         although urban sprawl increases water demand, urban supply will 
                         not be compromised given the large volume of available water in 
                         the basin. However, the indirect consequences of urban sprawl, 
                         such as industrialization and agricultural intensification, may 
                         compromise the quality of this resource and require better water 
                         use management in the region.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137509",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137509",
                 issn = "0048-9697",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Paiva_urban.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "2024, Apr. 25"
}