| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
| Site | plutao.sid.inpe.br |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identificador | 8JMKD3MGP3W/3SCS9DE |
| Repositório | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2018/12.14.21.07.51 (acesso restrito) |
| Última Atualização | 2018:12.18.13.10.49 (UTC) lattes |
| Repositório de Metadados | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2018/12.14.21.07.52 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:01.02.22.17.00 (UTC) administrator |
| DOI | 10.1127/metz/2018/0898 |
| ISSN | 0941-2948 |
| Rótulo | lattes: 4978912302419377 1 CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo |
| Chave de Citação | CoelhoFirpAndr:2018:VeFrSo |
| Título | A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation predictions  |
| Ano | 2018 |
| Data de Acesso | 16 maio 2024 |
| Tipo de Trabalho | journal article |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 2495 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 2 Firpo, Mári Andrea Feldman 3 Andrade, Felipe Marques de |
| Grupo | 1 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 2 MET-MET-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 3 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 caio.coelho@inpe.br 2 3 felipe.andrade@inpe.br |
| Revista | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| Volume | 27 |
| Número | 6 |
| Páginas | 503-520 |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2018-12-18 13:10:51 :: lattes -> administrator :: 2018 2021-01-02 22:17:00 :: administrator -> simone :: 2018 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
| Tipo de Versão | publisher |
| Palavras-Chave | sub-seasonal prediction verification precipitation South America |
| Resumo | This paper proposes a verification framework for South American sub-seasonal (weekly accumulated) precipitation predictions produced one to four weeks in advance. The framework assesses both hindcast and near real time forecast quality focusing on a selection of attributes (association, accuracy, discrimination, reliability and resolution). These attributes are measured using deterministic and probabilistic scores. Such an attribute-based framework allows the production of verification information in three levels according to the availability of sub-seasonal hindcasts and near real time forecasts samples. The framework is useful for supporting future routine sub-seasonal prediction practice by helping forecasters to identify model forecast merits and deficiencies and regions where to trust the model guidance information. The three information levels are defined according to the verification sampling strategy and are referred to as target week hindcast verification, all season hindcast verification, all season near real time forecast verification. The framework is illustrated using ECMWF sub-seasonal precipitation predictions. For the investigated period (austral autumn), reasonable accordance was identified between hindcasts and near real time forecast quality across the three levels. Sub-seasonal precipitation predictions produced one to two weeks in advance presented better performance than those produced three to four weeks in advance. The northeast region of Brazil presented favorable sub-seasonal precipitation prediction performance, particularly in terms of association, accuracy and discrimination attributes. This region was identified as a region where sub-seasonal precipitation predictions produced one to four weeks in advance are most likely to be successful in South America. When aggregating all predictions over the South American continent the probabilistic assessment showed modest discrimination ability, with predictions clearly requiring calibration for improving reliability and possibly combination with predictions produced by other models for improving resolution. The proposed framework is also useful for providing feedback to model developers in identifying strengths and weaknesses for future sub-seasonal predictions systems improvements. |
| Área | MET |
| Arranjo 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção pgr ATUAIS > MET > A verification framework... |
| Arranjo 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > A verification framework... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | coelho_verification.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | lattes |
| Grupo de Leitores | administrator lattes |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Permissão de Leitura | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| Permissão de Atualização | não transferida |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F35TRS 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Lista de Itens Citando | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.15.01.34 2 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 1 |
| Divulgação | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; SCOPUS. |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01 |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url |
| 7. Controle da descrição | |
| e-Mail (login) | simone |
| atualizar | |
