author = "Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle 
                         Sim{\~o}es and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'e} Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon 
                         and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and 
                         Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola O. and Tall, Moustapha and 
                         Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and 
                         Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, 
          affiliation = "{Oak Ridge National Laboratory} and {Center for Scientifc Research 
                         and Higher Education of Ensenada} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for 
                         Theoretical Physics} and {Hong Kong University of Science and 
                         Technology} and National Space Research and Development Agency, 
                         Anyigba, Nigeria and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Oak Ridge National Laboratory} and {University of 
                         Ibadan} and Universit{\'e} Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar-Fann and 
                         {African Institute for Mathematical Sciences} and {Oak Ridge 
                         National Laboratory} and Global Change Impact Studies Centre, 
                         Islamabad, Pakistan and {Abdus Salam International Centre for 
                         Theoretical Physics} and {} and {University of California-Los 
                         Angeles} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical 
                title = "Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in 
                         RegCM-CORDEX simulations",
              journal = "Climate Dynamics",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "55",
                pages = "1",
             abstract = "We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) 
                         projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the 
                         frst time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various 
                         levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional 
                         simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid 
                         spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three 
                         General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the ffth 
                         phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each 
                         simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two 
                         Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). 
                         Regional climate simulations exhibit high fdelity in capturing key 
                         characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across 
                         monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, 
                         regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon 
                         onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy 
                         season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions 
                         with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in 
                         pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between 
                         pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening 
                         of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon 
                         period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the 
                         monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep 
                         convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are 
                         mostly within the baseline variability.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2",
                  url = "",
                 issn = "0930-7575",
                label = "lattes: 2194275113941232 7 AshfaqCRTIOAKATSMZDCG:2020:RoLaTw",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ashfaq_robust3.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "2022, Jan. 26"