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		<doi>10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2</doi>
		<issn>0930-7575</issn>
		<citationkey>AshfaqCRTIOAKATSMZDDCG:2021:RoLaTw</citationkey>
		<title>Robust late twenty&#8209;frst century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM&#8209;CORDEX simulations</title>
		<year>2021</year>
		<typeofwork>journal article</typeofwork>
		<secondarytype>PRE PI</secondarytype>
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		<author>Ashfaq, Moetasim,</author>
		<author>Cavazos, Tereza,</author>
		<author>Reboita, Michelle Simões,</author>
		<author>Torres-Alavez, José Abraham,</author>
		<author>Im, Eun-Soon,</author>
		<author>Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola,</author>
		<author>Alves, Lincoln Muniz,</author>
		<author>Key, Kesondra,</author>
		<author>Adeniyi, Mojisola A.,</author>
		<author>Tall, Moustapha,</author>
		<author>Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba,</author>
		<author>Mehmood, Shahid,</author>
		<author>Zafar, Qudsia,</author>
		<author>Das, Sushant,</author>
		<author>Diallo, Ismaila,</author>
		<author>Coppola, Erika,</author>
		<author>Giorgi, Filippo,</author>
		<orcid>0000-0003-4106-3027</orcid>
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		<affiliation>Oak Ridge National Laboratory</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Center for Scientifc Research and Higher Education of Ensenada</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physic</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Hong Kong University of Science and Technology</affiliation>
		<affiliation>National Space Research and Development Agency</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Oak Ridge National Laboratory</affiliation>
		<affiliation>University of Ibadan</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Université Cheikh Anta Diop</affiliation>
		<affiliation>African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Oak Ridge National Laboratory</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Global Change Impact Studies Centre</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics</affiliation>
		<affiliation>University of California-Los Angele</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics</affiliation>
		<electronicmailaddress>mashfaq@ornl.gov</electronicmailaddress>
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		<electronicmailaddress>lincoln.muniz@gmail.com</electronicmailaddress>
		<journal>Climate Dynamics</journal>
		<volume>57</volume>
		<pages>1463-1488</pages>
		<secondarymark>A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A2_ENGENHARIAS_I A2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B1_CIÊNCIA_DA_COMPUTAÇÃO</secondarymark>
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		<abstract>We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.</abstract>
		<area>CST</area>
		<language>en</language>
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