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		<doi>10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137509</doi>
		<issn>0048-9697</issn>
		<citationkey>PaivaNaRoToCaRe:2020:CaPaSu</citationkey>
		<title>Urban expansion and its impact on water security: The case of the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, São Paulo, Brazil</title>
		<year>2020</year>
		<month>jun.</month>
		<secondarytype>PRE PI</secondarytype>
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		<author>Paiva, Ana Carolina da Encarnação,</author>
		<author>Nascimento, Nathália,</author>
		<author>Rodriguez, Daniel Andres,</author>
		<author>Tomasella, Javier,</author>
		<author>Carriello, Felix,</author>
		<author>Rezende, Fernanda Silva,</author>
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		<group>CST-CST-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR</group>
		<group>CST-CST-SESPG-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR</group>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)</affiliation>
		<electronicmailaddress>carolina.paiva@inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<journal>Science of the Total Environment</journal>
		<volume>720</volume>
		<pages>e137509</pages>
		<secondarymark>A1_ZOOTECNIA_/_RECURSOS_PESQUEIROS A1_SAÚDE_COLETIVA A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_III A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_ENFERMAGEM A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A1_CIÊNCIA_DE_ALIMENTOS A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A2_QUÍMICA A2_ODONTOLOGIA A2_MEDICINA_III A2_MEDICINA_II A2_MEDICINA_I A2_MATERIAIS A2_FARMÁCIA A2_ENGENHARIAS_II A2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A2_BIOTECNOLOGIA B1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_II B2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA</secondarymark>
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		<keywords>Water supply, Urbanization, Population growth, Land use modelling.</keywords>
		<abstract>Increasing demand for water is one of the most challenging problems that human societies face today and has encouraged new studies to examine water security and water management. Seeking to discuss this important issue in the Brazilian context, we analyzed the impacts of urban expansion on water security in a basin located in the most populated region of Brazil. To quantify increased water demand, we combined urban sprawl and regional population increase projections. In this context, our study contributes to discussions on water security by addressing the importance of integration between water and urban planning. Simulations indicate good performance in reproducing actual water system conditions. The finding demonstrates that urban expansion in the region is mainly driven by road proximity. Urban occupation is projected to increase in 170% by 2050, increasing water demands for domestic use in 38%. Results indicate the feasibility of including landscape and socioeconomic constrains in order to obtain potential domestic water demand scenarios by using land use and land cover change modelling to assess urban expansion and population growth. For the study region, our findings suggest that although urban sprawl increases water demand, urban supply will not be compromised given the large volume of available water in the basin. However, the indirect consequences of urban sprawl, such as industrialization and agricultural intensification, may compromise the quality of this resource and require better water use management in the region.</abstract>
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		<language>en</language>
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