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@ElectronicSource{MarengoAlve::TeHiBa,
           targetfile = "v1.pdf",
          affiliation = "{CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil}",
             abstract = "This study is directed to na analysis of the negative river 
                         streamflow tendencies detected in the Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul 
                         River series since the 1920s. This basin covers one of the most 
                         developed and industrialized regions of Brazil in the states of 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, and is 
                         responsible for almost 10% of the Gross National Product, and it 
                         has a primary role in the National Water resources Policy. The 
                         waters of the Paraiba do Sul River supply the demands of almost 15 
                         million people in mostly large cities; depend primarily from this 
                         water supply. Any reduction in the volume of its waters may have 
                         large social and economical impacts, and currently the thinking on 
                         many of the city governments across the valley is that the rains 
                         are decreasing systematically. A detailed statistical analysis 
                         applied to the river streamflow and rainfall series in several 
                         stations in the valley detect the negative streamflow tendencies. 
                         However, there are no signs of any significant rainfall reduction 
                         in the valley, and in fact, some stations show small rainfall 
                         increases in time during the recent decades. Am autocorrelation 
                         analysis performed on the river streamflow series show a large 
                         autocorrelation in consecutive years, suggesting than regulation 
                         in the operation of reservoirs for water use (hydroelectric 
                         generation, irrigation, human consumption) are responsible for the 
                         negative streamflow tendencies, rather than a climate change in 
                         the form of changes in the rainfall regime in the basin. Resumo: 
                         Este trabalho tem a inten{\c{c}}{\~a}o de analisar as 
                         tend{\^e}ncias negativas sistem{\'a}ticas detectadas em la 
                         series hist{\'o}ricas de vaz{\~o}es e cotas do Rio 
                         Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul desde 1920. Esta bacia abrange uma das 
                         mais desenvolvidas {\'a}reas industriais do Pa{\'{\i}}s em 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, Minas Gerias e Rio de Janeiro, arrecada cerca de 
                         10% do PIB nacional e j{\'a} assume um papel de destaque na 
                         implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da Pol{\'{\i}}tica Nacional de 
                         Recursos H{\'{\i}}dricos. As {\'a}guas do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba 
                         do Sul abastecem em torno de 15 milh{\~o}es de pessoas, 
                         maiormente em regi{\~o}es metropolitanas que dependem 
                         primordialmente de suas {\'a}guas. Uma queda sistem{\'a}tica nas 
                         vaz{\~o}es pode ter graves conseq{\"u}{\^e}ncias sociais e 
                         econ{\^o}micas, e uma das causas apontadas pelos governos locais 
                         {\'e} uma poss{\'{\i}}vel queda no volume de chuvas. Uma 
                         analise estat{\'{\i}}stica sistem{\'a}tica em series 
                         pluviom{\'e}tricas e fluviometricas detecta de fato as 
                         tend{\^e}ncias negativas nas vaz{\~o}es, mais n{\~a}o detectam 
                         quedas sistem{\'a}ticas nas chuvas na bacia, e ate em alguns 
                         pontos a chuva tem aumentado nas ultimas d{\'e}cadas. Uma analise 
                         de correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o serial de estas series hidrol{\'o}gicas 
                         mostram uma alta correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre vaz{\~o}es de em 
                         v{\'a}rios anos consecutivos, sugerindo que a 
                         regula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de uso da {\'a}gua para abastecimento, 
                         gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de energia, e desvio de rios para usos na 
                         agricultura podem ser os respons{\'a}veis pelas quedas 
                         sistem{\'a}ticas nas vaz{\~o}es, e n{\~a}o uma mudan{\c{c}}a 
                         clim{\'a}tica do regime de chuva na bacia.",
            publisher = "Instituto and Nacional and de and Pesquisas and Espaciais",
                title = "Tendencias Hidrologicas da Bacia do Rio Paraiba do Sul",
                 note = "{Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia}",
                  ibi = "sid.inpe.br/ePrint@80/2005/05.11.13.21",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/sid.inpe.br/ePrint@80/2005/05.11.13.21",
       lastupdatedate = "2005-05-12",
             language = "Portuguese",
               author = "Marengo, Jose Antonio and Alves, Lincoln Muniz",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
         typeofmedium = "On-line",
             keywords = "hidrologia, Rio Paraiba do Sul.",
        urlaccessdate = "2022, Aug. 15"
}


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